Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
FC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Frans Heesen Stadion, Os
FC OSSTeam 1493Helmond SportTeam 1526We gave FC OSS 38% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 38% · 29% · 33%(FC OSS · draw · Helmond Sport)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–1 had 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC OSS €262K, Helmond Sport €298K.
- Home advantage made FC OSS the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC OSS
15th in Eerste Divisie · 9 pts from 9
- 3 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1505
- 26 SepLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1506
- 18 SepWDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1449
- 11 SepLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1482
- 4 SepLVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1485
Helmond Sport
14th in Eerste Divisie · 9 pts from 9
- 2 OctDHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1532
- 26 SepLMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1537
- 18 SepLDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1553
- 11 SepWJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1512
- 4 SepWVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1474
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC OSS | 9 /9 | 41.3 | 0% | <1% | 51% | 19th |
| Helmond Sport | 9 /9 | 42.8 | 0% | 1% | 40% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC OSS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1570
Helmond Sport · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.2 (Average) · Elo 1576
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC OSS: direct · low-volume (how Sjors Ultee plays) · Helmond Sport: balanced profile (how Frédéric Frans plays)