Premier League · Regular Season - 10
FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Gazovik Stadium, Rostoshi
FC OrenburgTeam 1585Dinamo MakhachkalaTeam 1535Match story
FC Orenburg · draw · Dinamo MakhachkalaBefore kick-off: 47% · 29% · 24%
Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Gedeon Guzina 17', 53'
- Jhon Alex Palacios 39'
- Jordhy Thompson 69' (pen)
We gave FC Orenburg 47% to win: they did.
- Gedeon Guzina 1601 +41* assist Jordhy Thompson 1757 +15*17'FC Orenburg:Gedeon Guzina 1601 +41* assist Jordhy Thompson 1757 +15*
- Jhon Alex Palacios 1787 +17* assist Ruslan Kul 1601 +52*39'FC Orenburg:Jhon Alex Palacios 1787 +17* assist Ruslan Kul 1601 +52*
- 45'Andres Alarcon 1620 −15* for Ilyas Akhmedov 1516 −8*Dinamo Makhachkala:Andres Alarcon 1620 −15* for Ilyas Akhmedov 1516 −8*
- 45'Valdemiro Pinto Domingos 1610 −14* for Marat Apshatsev 1544 −10*Dinamo Makhachkala:Valdemiro Pinto Domingos 1610 −14* for Marat Apshatsev 1544 −10*
- Gedeon Guzina 1601 +41* assist Damian Puebla 1730 +22*53'FC Orenburg:Gedeon Guzina 1601 +41* assist Damian Puebla 1730 +22*
- 54'Nikita Karabashev 1462 −8*Dinamo Makhachkala:Nikita Karabashev 1462 −8*
- Jordhy Thompson 1757 +15* (pen.)69'FC Orenburg:Jordhy Thompson 1757 +15* (pen.)
- Anton Lukashov 1550 +14 for Jordhy Thompson 1757 +15*70'FC Orenburg:Anton Lukashov 1550 +14 for Jordhy Thompson 1757 +15*
- Andrey Kasadzhikov 1437 −1* for Dmitriy Rybchinskiy 1614 +6*70'FC Orenburg:Andrey Kasadzhikov 1437 −1* for Dmitriy Rybchinskiy 1614 +6*
- 74'Dmitriy Aleksandrov 1574 −9* for Houssem Mrezigue 1618 −21*Dinamo Makhachkala:Dmitriy Aleksandrov 1574 −9* for Houssem Mrezigue 1618 −21*
- 74'Kirill Zinovich 1327 −8* for Gamid Agalarov 1583 −16*Dinamo Makhachkala:Kirill Zinovich 1327 −8* for Gamid Agalarov 1583 −16*
- Danila Khotulev 1752 −4* for Aleksey Tataev 1576 +43*78'FC Orenburg:Danila Khotulev 1752 −4* for Aleksey Tataev 1576 +43*
- Renat Golybin 1574 −2* for Damian Puebla 1730 +22*78'FC Orenburg:Renat Golybin 1574 −2* for Damian Puebla 1730 +22*
- 78'Vladimir Khubulov 1486 −8* for Daniil Lesovoy 1571 −17*Dinamo Makhachkala:Vladimir Khubulov 1486 −8* for Daniil Lesovoy 1571 −17*
- Egor Nazarenko 1589 −5* for Gedeon Guzina 1601 +41*81'FC Orenburg:Egor Nazarenko 1589 −5* for Gedeon Guzina 1601 +41*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 47% · 29% · 24%(FC Orenburg · draw · Dinamo Makhachkala)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–0 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: FC Orenburg €830K, Dinamo Makhachkala €609K.
- Dinamo Makhachkala's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Orenburg
12th in Premier Liga · 9 pts from 9
- 17 SepDFC Krasnodar Russia Premier League1599
- 12 SepLDynamo Russia Premier League1623
- 6 SepDAkron Russia Premier League1639
- 30 AugDSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1641
- 22 AugDFakel Russia Premier League1626
Dinamo Makhachkala
7th in Premier Liga · 12 pts from 9
- 17 SepLCSKA Moscow Russia Premier League1604
- 13 SepLAkhmat Russia Premier League1597
- 6 SepWRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1594
- 30 AugLRubin Russia Premier League1623
- 23 AugLFC Krasnodar Russia Premier League1623
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 9 /9 | 31.8 | 0% | 0% | 28% | 13th |
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 /9 | 32.0 | 0% | <1% | 28% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Orenburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1742
Dinamo Makhachkala · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1638
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: low-volume · direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Orenburg: balanced profile (how Ildar Akhmetzyanov plays) · Dinamo Makhachkala: direct · high-pressing (how Vadim Evseev plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.