Premier League · Regular Season - 13
FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
FC Orenburg host CSKA Moscow on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Orenburg 26%, draw 28%, CSKA Moscow 47%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Orenburg €861K, CSKA Moscow €3.8M.
- CSKA Moscow's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Orenburg goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–28%
- 0–08%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Orenburg 1665 · CSKA Moscow 1916
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Orenburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1757
CSKA Moscow · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2050
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Orenburg
8th in Premier Liga · 12 pts from 10
- 10 OctWDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1653
- 17 SepDFC Krasnodar Russia Premier League1599
- 12 SepLDynamo Russia Premier League1623
- 6 SepDAkron Russia Premier League1639
- 30 AugDSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1641
CSKA Moscow
4th in Premier Liga · 22 pts from 11
- 18 OctLDynamo Russia Premier League1925
- 11 OctWRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1911
- 17 SepWDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1886
- 12 SepDRubin Russia Premier League1922
- 5 SepWZenit Russia Premier League1895
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 12 /10 | 34.3 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 9th |
| CSKA Moscow | 22 /11 | 52.9 | 2% | 51% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Orenburg: balanced profile (how Ildar Akhmetzyanov plays) · CSKA Moscow: possession-based (how Dmitriy Igdisamov plays)