Premier League · Regular Season - 15
FC Orenburg vs Baltika
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
FC Orenburg host Baltika on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Orenburg 36%, draw 29%, Baltika 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Orenburg €960K, Baltika €1.7M.
- Home advantage makes FC Orenburg the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Orenburg goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–111%
- 0–011%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores37%
Team Elo: FC Orenburg 1673 · Baltika 1784
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Orenburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1767
Baltika · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1772
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Orenburg
10th in Premier Liga · 17 pts from 14
- 8 NovLKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League1700
- 1 NovDCSKA Moscow Russia Premier League1704
- 23 OctWAkhmat Russia Premier League1677
- 19 OctDRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1672
- 10 OctWDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1648
Baltika
9th in Premier Liga · 17 pts from 14
- 8 NovLDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1799
- 1 NovWAkron Russia Premier League1793
- 24 OctDFC Krasnodar Russia Premier League1781
- 18 OctDFC Rostov Russia Premier League1763
- 11 OctDAkhmat Russia Premier League1781
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 17 /14 | 34.7 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 11th |
| Baltika | 17 /14 | 38.6 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Orenburg: balanced profile (how Ildar Akhmetzyanov plays) · Baltika: balanced profile (how Andrey Talalaev plays)