Super League · Regular Season - 14
FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · AIL Arena, Lugano
FC Lugano host Grasshoppers on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Lugano 71%, draw 18%, Grasshoppers 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Lugano €3.2M, Grasshoppers €609K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Super League matchday 14: 363 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Super League average of 24% this round.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2124).
- Style contrast in possession (Super League): FC Lugano rank #1 of 13, Grasshoppers #13.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Lugano goals first.
- 2–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–08%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- 1–07%
- Other scores50%
Team Elo: FC Lugano 1993 · Grasshoppers 1630
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.4 (Elite) · Elo 2149
Grasshoppers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1570
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 34 pts from 13
- 8 NovLFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League2066
- 5 NovWKauno Žalgiris UEFA Conference League1973
- 1 NovWFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League2072
- 25 OctWFC Thun Swiss Super League1939
- 22 OctWGetafe UEFA Conference League2043
Grasshoppers
10th in Super League · 11 pts from 13
- 7 NovDLausanne Swiss Super League1634
- 31 OctDFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1635
- 25 OctDFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1606
- 11 OctLBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1617
- 19 SepLFC Luzern Swiss Super League1622
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 34 /13 | 51.6 | 92% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Grasshoppers | 11 /13 | 19.9 | 0% | 0% | 74% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays) · Grasshoppers: direct (how Olaf Janßen plays)