Super League · Regular Season - 10
FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Cornaredo, Lugano
FC LuganoTeam 1958FC LuzernTeam 1675- Daniel Dos Santos Correia 12', 78'
- Rúben Dantas Fernandes 61' (og)
- Dereck Moncada 87'
We gave FC Lugano 65% to win: they did.
- Behruzjon Karimov –4'FC Lugano:Behruzjon Karimov –
- Daniel Dos Santos Correia – assist Lars Lukas Mai –12'FC Lugano:Daniel Dos Santos Correia – assist Lars Lukas Mai –
- Daniel Dos Santos Correia –15'FC Lugano:Daniel Dos Santos Correia –
- Renato Steffen –35'FC Lugano:Renato Steffen –
- 43'Stefan Knezevic –FC Luzern:Stefan Knezevic –
- Martim Marques – for Lars Lukas Mai –45'FC Lugano:Martim Marques – for Lars Lukas Mai –
- 45'Pius Dorn – for Bung Hua Freimann –FC Luzern:Pius Dorn – for Bung Hua Freimann –
- Beckham Castro – for Albian Ajeti –57'FC Lugano:Beckham Castro – for Albian Ajeti –
- Dereck Moncada – for Renato Steffen –57'FC Lugano:Dereck Moncada – for Renato Steffen –
- Rúben Dantas Fernandes – (own goal)61'FC Lugano:Rúben Dantas Fernandes – (own goal)
- 66'Leonardo Bertone –FC Luzern:Leonardo Bertone –
- 67'Nando Toggenburger – for Tyron Owusu –FC Luzern:Nando Toggenburger – for Tyron Owusu –
- 67'Lars Villiger – for Daniel Mikołajewski –FC Luzern:Lars Villiger – for Daniel Mikołajewski –
- Damian Kelvin – for Behruzjon Karimov –74'FC Lugano:Damian Kelvin – for Behruzjon Karimov –
- Daniel Dos Santos Correia – assist Beckham Castro –78'FC Lugano:Daniel Dos Santos Correia – assist Beckham Castro –
- 79'Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira – for Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb –FC Luzern:Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira – for Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb –
- Ahmed Kendouci – for Daniel Dos Santos Correia –83'FC Lugano:Ahmed Kendouci – for Daniel Dos Santos Correia –
- 83'Levin Winkler – for Mio Zimmermann –FC Luzern:Levin Winkler – for Mio Zimmermann –
- Dereck Moncada – assist David von Ballmoos –87'FC Lugano:Dereck Moncada – assist David von Ballmoos –
Before kick-off (provisional): 65% · 21% · 14%(FC Lugano · draw · FC Luzern)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 4–0 had 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Lugano €3.0M, FC Luzern €759K.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2048).
- Style contrast in possession (Super League): FC Lugano ranked #1 of 12, FC Luzern #9.
- FC Lugano's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
- FC Lugano were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 25 pts from 9
- 20 SepWLausanne Swiss Super League1946
- 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1860
- 12 SepDBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1949
- 6 SepWFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1919
- 3 SepWServette FC Swiss Super League1829
FC Luzern
6th in Super League · 12 pts from 9
- 19 SepWGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1632
- 13 SepLFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1638
- 5 SepDBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1637
- 2 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1602
- 29 AugDServette FC Swiss Super League1687
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 25 /9 | 49.7 | 83% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| FC Luzern | 12 /9 | 27.2 | 0% | 5% | 16% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 2109
FC Luzern · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1685
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays) · FC Luzern: balanced profile (how Jörg Portmann plays)