Super League · Regular Season - 12
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:30 UTC · AIL Arena, Lugano
FC Lugano host FC Basel 1893 on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Lugano 54%, draw 25%, FC Basel 1893 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Lugano €2.7M, FC Basel 1893 €1.9M.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2070).
- FC Lugano's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 over 180 days.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Lugano goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Lugano 1976 · FC Basel 1893 1827
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 2122
FC Basel 1893 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1892
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 28 pts from 10
- 15 OctWFK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Conference League2000
- 10 OctWFC Luzern Swiss Super League1988
- 20 SepWLausanne Swiss Super League1946
- 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1860
- 12 SepDBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1949
FC Basel 1893
7th in Super League · 13 pts from 10
- 11 OctLFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1840
- 20 SepLFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1830
- 13 SepWFC Luzern Swiss Super League1806
- 6 SepLFC Lugano Swiss Super League1814
- 3 SepLFC Sion Swiss Super League1830
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 28 /10 | 50.7 | 89% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| FC Basel 1893 | 13 /10 | 31.9 | 0% | 31% | 2% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays) · FC Basel 1893: possession-based (how Slaviša Jokanović plays)