Meistriliiga · Regular Season - 30
FC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
FC Levadia TallinnTeam 1636PaideTeam 1460- G. Reis 89'
We gave FC Levadia Tallinn 54% to win: they did.
- 3'R. Smirnov –Paide:R. Smirnov –
- F. Liivak –6'FC Levadia Tallinn:F. Liivak –
- Wendell –23'FC Levadia Tallinn:Wendell –
- J. Saliste –31'FC Levadia Tallinn:J. Saliste –
- 36'M. Jobarteh –Paide:M. Jobarteh –
- Wendell – (penalty missed) assist Wendell –45+2'FC Levadia Tallinn:Wendell – (penalty missed) assist Wendell –
- 46'J. Palacios – for M. Jobarteh –Paide:J. Palacios – for M. Jobarteh –
- 46'O. Hoim – for R. Smirnov –Paide:O. Hoim – for R. Smirnov –
- 46'K. Piht – for D. Darboe –Paide:K. Piht – for D. Darboe –
- V. Iboro –52'FC Levadia Tallinn:V. Iboro –
- M. Roosnupp – for N. Kutateladze –66'FC Levadia Tallinn:M. Roosnupp – for N. Kutateladze –
- G. Reis – for M. Skvortsov –66'FC Levadia Tallinn:G. Reis – for M. Skvortsov –
- 71'S. Luts – for D. Luts –Paide:S. Luts – for D. Luts –
- T. Tammik – for Alexandre –73'FC Levadia Tallinn:T. Tammik – for Alexandre –
- E. Otoo – for A. Nwankwo –73'FC Levadia Tallinn:E. Otoo – for A. Nwankwo –
- T. Tammik –77'FC Levadia Tallinn:T. Tammik –
- 80'K. Piht –Paide:K. Piht –
- 81'A. Surogin – for M. Miller –Paide:A. Surogin – for M. Miller –
- G. Reis – assist F. Liivak –89'FC Levadia Tallinn:G. Reis – assist F. Liivak –
- R. Kirss – for Wendell –90+4'FC Levadia Tallinn:R. Kirss – for Wendell –
Before kick-off (provisional): 54% · 26% · 20%(FC Levadia Tallinn · draw · Paide)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Levadia Tallinn €435K, Paide €266K.
- Meistriliiga: K. Vallner was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1751).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Levadia Tallinn
1st in Meistriliiga · 72 pts from 29
- 30 JulLIFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League1691
- 21 JulWIFK Goteborg UEFA Conference League1673
- 16 JulWCaernarfon Town UEFA Conference League1651
- 9 JulWCaernarfon Town UEFA Conference League1651
- 30 MayWTammeka Estonia Meistriliiga1652
Paide
3rd in Meistriliiga · 51 pts from 29
- 12 AugLRapid Vienna UEFA Conference League1475
- 6 AugLRapid Vienna UEFA Conference League1531
- 30 JulDZira UEFA Conference League1484
- 23 JulWZira UEFA Conference League1457
- 16 JulWHegelmann Litauen UEFA Conference League1428
Season outlook
From the Meistriliiga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 72 /29 | 85.9 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Paide | 51 /29 | 61.4 | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Levadia Tallinn · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1742
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –