3. Liga · Regular Season - 10
FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt 04Team 1644Rot-Weiß EssenTeam 1672- Jonas Scholz 47'
We gave FC Ingolstadt 04 41% to win: they did.
- Lukas Fröde –10'FC Ingolstadt 04:Lukas Fröde –
- 33'Ben Huning –Rot-Weiß Essen:Ben Huning –
- Emre Gul – for Keanan Bennetts –33'FC Ingolstadt 04:Emre Gul – for Keanan Bennetts –
- Frederik Carlsen – for Nishan Velupillay –45'FC Ingolstadt 04:Frederik Carlsen – for Nishan Velupillay –
- Jonas Scholz – assist Dennis Kaygin –47'FC Ingolstadt 04:Jonas Scholz – assist Dennis Kaygin –
- 55'Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse –Rot-Weiß Essen:Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse –
- 59'Ekin Celebi – for Noah Pesch –Rot-Weiß Essen:Ekin Celebi – for Noah Pesch –
- 59'Lucas Brumme – for Marvin Obuz –Rot-Weiß Essen:Lucas Brumme – for Marvin Obuz –
- Josef Ganda – for benjamin kanuric –64'FC Ingolstadt 04:Josef Ganda – for benjamin kanuric –
- Vinko Sapina – for Dennis Kaygin –64'FC Ingolstadt 04:Vinko Sapina – for Dennis Kaygin –
- 73'Michael Kostka – for Jannik Hofmann –Rot-Weiß Essen:Michael Kostka – for Jannik Hofmann –
- 73'Jaka Cuber Potocnik – for Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse –Rot-Weiß Essen:Jaka Cuber Potocnik – for Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse –
- 79'Dickson Abiama –Rot-Weiß Essen:Dickson Abiama –
- Obed Chidindu Ugondu – for Lars Lokotsch –81'FC Ingolstadt 04:Obed Chidindu Ugondu – for Lars Lokotsch –
- 84'Dickson Abiama – offRot-Weiß Essen:Dickson Abiama – off
Before kick-off (provisional): 41% · 29% · 30%(FC Ingolstadt 04 · draw · Rot-Weiß Essen)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Ingolstadt 04 €395K, Rot-Weiß Essen €508K.
- Home advantage made FC Ingolstadt 04 the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
- Rot-Weiß Essen were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Ingolstadt 04
13th in 3. Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 14 OctWWaldhof Mannheim Germany 3 Liga1630
- 11 OctLSV Wehen Germany 3 Liga1644
- 19 SepLFC Viktoria Köln Germany 3 Liga1622
- 16 SepLHoffenheim II Germany 3 Liga1649
- 12 SepWFC Saarbrücken Germany 3 Liga1616
Rot-Weiß Essen
3rd in 3. Liga · 18 pts from 9
- 13 OctWFortuna Köln Germany 3 Liga1664
- 9 OctDPreußen Münster Germany 3 Liga1658
- 20 SepDHansa Rostock Germany 3 Liga1686
- 16 SepWWaldhof Mannheim Germany 3 Liga1692
- 12 SepWWürzburger Kickers Germany 3 Liga1626
Season outlook
From the 3. Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 /9 | 56.4 | 2% | 17% | <1% | 6th |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 18 /9 | 65.3 | 17% | 65% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Ingolstadt 04 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1780
Rot-Weiß Essen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1750
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Ingolstadt 04: balanced profile (how Achim Beierlorzer plays) · Rot-Weiß Essen: balanced profile (how Uwe Koschinat plays)