3. Liga · Regular Season - 11
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt 04 host MSV Duisburg on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (3. Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Ingolstadt 04 43%, draw 28%, MSV Duisburg 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Ingolstadt 04 €408K, MSV Duisburg €477K.
- Home advantage makes FC Ingolstadt 04 the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (3. Liga): FC Ingolstadt 04 rank #3 of 20, MSV Duisburg #18.
- MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Ingolstadt 04 goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC Ingolstadt 04 1661 · MSV Duisburg 1670
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Ingolstadt 04 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1730
MSV Duisburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1667
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Ingolstadt 04
9th in 3. Liga · 14 pts from 10
- 17 OctWRot-Weiß Essen Germany 3 Liga1665
- 14 OctWWaldhof Mannheim Germany 3 Liga1630
- 11 OctLSV Wehen Germany 3 Liga1644
- 19 SepLFC Viktoria Köln Germany 3 Liga1622
- 16 SepLHoffenheim II Germany 3 Liga1649
MSV Duisburg
1st in 3. Liga · 25 pts from 10
- 18 OctDFC Viktoria Köln Germany 3 Liga1686
- 13 OctWFC Saarbrücken Germany 3 Liga1663
- 10 OctWHoffenheim II Germany 3 Liga1652
- 20 SepWSV Wehen Germany 3 Liga1626
- 15 SepWHavelse Germany 3 Liga1578
Season outlook
From the 3. Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 14 /10 | 58.9 | 4% | 29% | <1% | 5th |
| MSV Duisburg | 25 /10 | 70.4 | 51% | 88% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Ingolstadt 04: balanced profile (how Achim Beierlorzer plays) · MSV Duisburg: balanced profile (how Dietmar Hirsch plays)