Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 11
FC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven
FC EindhovenTeam 1449VitesseTeam 1545- Naoufal Bannis 39'
We gave Vitesse 37% to win: they did.
- Junior Poortvliet 1507 −338'FC Eindhoven:Junior Poortvliet 1507 −3
- 39'Naoufal Bannis 1730 +23Vitesse:Naoufal Bannis 1730 +23
- 44'Pontus Dahbo 1567 +11Vitesse:Pontus Dahbo 1567 +11
- 53'valon zumberi 1754 +21Vitesse:valon zumberi 1754 +21
- Clint Essers 1515 −755'FC Eindhoven:Clint Essers 1515 −7
- 58'Alexander Büttner 1448 −2 for Youssef Ouallil 1323 +23Vitesse:Alexander Büttner 1448 −2 for Youssef Ouallil 1323 +23
- 58'Mathijs Marschalk 1578 +9 for Filipe de Carvalho Ferreira 1566 +11Vitesse:Mathijs Marschalk 1578 +9 for Filipe de Carvalho Ferreira 1566 +11
- 58'Koen Te Veluwe 1320 +25 for Pontus Dahbo 1567 +11Vitesse:Koen Te Veluwe 1320 +25 for Pontus Dahbo 1567 +11
- Luc Netten 1457 0 for Junior Poortvliet 1507 −361'FC Eindhoven:Luc Netten 1457 0 for Junior Poortvliet 1507 −3
- Hugo Deenen 1462 0 for Vicente Besuijen 1585 −16*61'FC Eindhoven:Hugo Deenen 1462 0 for Vicente Besuijen 1585 −16*
- Luc Netten 1457 073'FC Eindhoven:Luc Netten 1457 0
- 75'Luuk Wouters 1716 −4* for Xiamaro thenu 1576 +41Vitesse:Luuk Wouters 1716 −4* for Xiamaro thenu 1576 +41
- Niek Munsters 1263 0 for Guus Beaumont 1462 080'FC Eindhoven:Niek Munsters 1263 0 for Guus Beaumont 1462 0
- Owen Renfrum 1541 −882'FC Eindhoven:Owen Renfrum 1541 −8
- 82'Naoufal Bannis 1730 +23Vitesse:Naoufal Bannis 1730 +23
- 84'Eduard·Probst 1369 +2 for Naoufal Bannis 1730 +23Vitesse:Eduard·Probst 1369 +2 for Naoufal Bannis 1730 +23
- Lasse Abildgaard for Clint Essers 1515 −787'FC Eindhoven:Lasse Abildgaard for Clint Essers 1515 −7
- Lennon Smulders 1238 −8* for Xander Blomme 1505 −1287'FC Eindhoven:Lennon Smulders 1238 −8* for Xander Blomme 1505 −12
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 33% · 30% · 37%(FC Eindhoven · draw · Vitesse)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: FC Eindhoven €257K, Vitesse €302K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Eerste Divisie): FC Eindhoven ranked #20 of 20, Vitesse #1.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Eindhoven
15th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 10
- 9 OctLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1513
- 3 OctDDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1512
- 26 SepLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1505
- 18 SepWEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1461
- 11 SepWDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1446
Vitesse
10th in Eerste Divisie · 14 pts from 10
- 9 OctLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1589
- 3 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1638
- 26 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1637
- 19 SepWJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1600
- 12 SepLRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1611
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Eindhoven | 11 /10 | 42.9 | 0% | <1% | 40% | 20th |
| Vitesse | 14 /10 | 53.2 | 1% | 11% | 4% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Eindhoven · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1462
Vitesse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1707
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Eindhoven: balanced profile (how Jan Poortvliet plays) · Vitesse: balanced profile (how Rüdiger Rehm plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.