Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 14
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven host Jong Ajax on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Eindhoven 30%, draw 29%, Jong Ajax 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Eindhoven €236K, Jong Ajax €416K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eerste Divisie matchday 14: 151 points.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Eerste Divisie): FC Eindhoven rank #20 of 20, Jong Ajax #2.
- FC Eindhoven's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
- Jong Ajax's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Eindhoven goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: FC Eindhoven 1487 · Jong Ajax 1638
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Eindhoven · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1462
Jong Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1698
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Eindhoven
15th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 11
- 16 OctLVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1502
- 9 OctLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1513
- 3 OctDDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1512
- 26 SepLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1505
- 18 SepWEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1461
Jong Ajax
16th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 11
- 19 OctWDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1590
- 9 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1607
- 18 SepDRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1601
- 14 SepLJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1534
- 11 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1639
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Eindhoven | 11 /11 | 40.3 | 0% | 0% | 53% | 20th |
| Jong Ajax | 11 /11 | 49.8 | <1% | 3% | 8% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Eindhoven: balanced profile (how Jan Poortvliet plays) · Jong Ajax: dribble-heavy (how Carlos García plays)