Major League Soccer · Round of 16
FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Toyota Stadium
FC Dallas host Portland Timbers on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Dallas 50%, draw 27%, Portland Timbers 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Dallas €1.6M, Portland Timbers €1.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the MLS Round of 16: 63 points.
- Portland Timbers are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Dallas goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 2–27%
- 2–07%
- 1–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores52%
Team Elo: FC Dallas 1954 · Portland Timbers 1891
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Dallas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2069
Portland Timbers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Good) · Elo 2010
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Dallas
2nd in MLS · 58 pts from 34
- 8 NovWColorado Rapids MLS1945
- 31 OctDSporting Kansas City MLS1898
- 29 OctLColumbus Crew MLS1956
- 25 OctWSan Jose Earthquakes MLS1921
- 18 OctDHouston Dynamo MLS1887
Portland Timbers
7th in MLS · 46 pts from 34
- 8 NovWAustin MLS1892
- 2 NovWHouston Dynamo MLS1868
- 29 OctWSt. Louis City MLS1834
- 25 OctWCharlotte MLS1842
- 18 OctDColorado Rapids MLS1802
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 58 /34 | 61.0 | 0% | 61% | 0% | 4th |
| Portland Timbers | 46 /34 | 48.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Dallas: balanced profile (how Eric Quill plays) · Portland Timbers: balanced profile (how Martí Cifuentes plays)