Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 33
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati host Philadelphia Union on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Cincinnati 34%, draw 29%, Philadelphia Union 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Cincinnati €2.7M, Philadelphia Union €3.3M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (MLS): FC Cincinnati rank #2 of 30, Philadelphia Union #30.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Cincinnati goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC Cincinnati 1922 · Philadelphia Union 2061
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Cincinnati · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1960
Philadelphia Union · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2121
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Cincinnati
9th in MLS · 36 pts from 28
- 18 OctLColumbus Crew MLS1977
- 14 OctLNew England Revolution MLS1935
- 10 OctWAtlanta United FC MLS1920
- 26 SepLCF Montreal MLS1880
- 20 SepDHouston Dynamo MLS1934
Philadelphia Union
6th in MLS · 46 pts from 30
- 17 OctDCharlotte MLS2144
- 15 OctWChicago Fire MLS2097
- 10 OctWReal Salt Lake MLS2112
- 26 SepWOrlando City SC MLS2017
- 20 SepWSporting Kansas City MLS2075
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 36 /28 | 42.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 17th |
| Philadelphia Union | 46 /30 | 52.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Cincinnati: dribble-heavy (how Patrick John Noonan plays) · Philadelphia Union: direct · high-pressing (how Ryan Richter plays)