Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
FC Cincinnati vs DC United
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati host DC United on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Cincinnati 52%, draw 26%, DC United 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Cincinnati €2.7M, DC United €1.3M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (MLS): FC Cincinnati rank #2 of 30, DC United #28.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Cincinnati goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC Cincinnati 1922 · DC United 1840
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Cincinnati · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1960
DC United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1853
Absences
FC Cincinnati
Doubtful
- J. MalatiniThigh Injury1882
DC United
None reported
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Cincinnati
9th in MLS · 36 pts from 28
- 18 OctLColumbus Crew MLS1977
- 14 OctLNew England Revolution MLS1935
- 10 OctWAtlanta United FC MLS1920
- 26 SepLCF Montreal MLS1880
- 20 SepDHouston Dynamo MLS1934
DC United
12th in MLS · 33 pts from 29
- 17 OctLOrlando City SC MLS1864
- 14 OctWNew York Red Bulls MLS1837
- 10 OctLInter Miami MLS1832
- 27 SepDVancouver Whitecaps MLS1840
- 19 SepLCharlotte MLS1870
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 36 /28 | 42.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 17th |
| DC United | 33 /29 | 38.8 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 27th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Cincinnati: dribble-heavy (how Patrick John Noonan plays) · DC United: direct · high-pressing (how René Weiler plays)