Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg
FC Augsburg host Union Berlin on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Augsburg 45%, draw 28%, Union Berlin 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Augsburg €7.5M, Union Berlin €4.5M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Augsburg goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: FC Augsburg 2010 · Union Berlin 1944
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Augsburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2182
Union Berlin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 (Good) · Elo 2133
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Augsburg
10th in Bundesliga · 8 pts from 6
- 17 OctLSV Elversberg Bundesliga2040
- 10 OctDBayern München Bundesliga2039
- 19 SepLWerder Bremen Bundesliga2041
- 12 SepDBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2044
- 6 SepWEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2022
Union Berlin
17th in Bundesliga · 5 pts from 6
- 17 OctDBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga1949
- 10 OctWSV Elversberg Bundesliga1932
- 18 SepLBayern München Bundesliga1906
- 11 SepLFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga1930
- 5 SepLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga1924
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 8 /6 | 42.3 | 0% | 1% | 7% | 10th |
| Union Berlin | 5 /6 | 35.2 | 0% | <1% | 39% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Augsburg: balanced profile (how Manuel Baum plays) · Union Berlin: direct (how Mauro Lustrinelli plays)