Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg
FC Augsburg host FSV Mainz 05 on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Augsburg 36%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Augsburg €9.7M, FSV Mainz 05 €5.4M.
- Home advantage makes FC Augsburg the favourite here: it adds 4 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Augsburg goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–28%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- 1–06%
- 0–16%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.6 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.2 pts
Team Elo: FC Augsburg 1994 · FSV Mainz 05 2038
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Augsburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 2019
FSV Mainz 05 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2008
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Augsburg
14th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 9
- 7 NovLRB Leipzig Bundesliga2007
- 31 OctLSC Freiburg Bundesliga2020
- 27 OctWSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany DFB Pokal2008
- 24 OctDUnion Berlin Bundesliga2038
- 17 OctLSV Elversberg Bundesliga2030
FSV Mainz 05
12th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 9
- 7 NovLBayern München Bundesliga2031
- 30 OctLSV Elversberg Bundesliga2079
- 27 OctLVfL Bochum Germany DFB Pokal2091
- 24 OctLWerder Bremen Bundesliga2101
- 17 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2083
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 9 /9 | 38.3 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 12th |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 10 /9 | 40.9 | 0% | <1% | 8% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Augsburg: balanced profile (how Manuel Baum plays) · FSV Mainz 05: balanced profile (how Urs Fischer plays)