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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg

FC Augsburg crestFC AugsburgTeam 2027
2–2
Full time
HT 1–0
Bayern München crestBayern MünchenTeam 2588

Match story

FC Augsburg · draw · Bayern München

Before kick-off: 9% · 13% · 78%

Live chances: FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0% at 90+14'2' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 23%, draw 19%, Bayern München 59%3' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 23%, draw 19%, Bayern München 59%4' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 23%, draw 19%, Bayern München 58%5' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 23%, draw 19%, Bayern München 58%6' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 23%, draw 19%, Bayern München 57%7' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 24%, draw 19%, Bayern München 57%8' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 24%, draw 19%, Bayern München 57%9' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 24%, draw 20%, Bayern München 56%10' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 25%, draw 20%, Bayern München 56%11' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 25%, draw 20%, Bayern München 55%12' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 25%, draw 20%, Bayern München 55%13' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 25%, draw 20%, Bayern München 54%14' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 26%, draw 21%, Bayern München 54%15' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 26%, draw 21%, Bayern München 53%16' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 26%, draw 21%, Bayern München 53%17' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 27%, draw 21%, Bayern München 52%18' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 27%, draw 21%, Bayern München 52%19' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 27%, draw 21%, Bayern München 51%20' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 27%, draw 22%, Bayern München 51%21' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 28%, draw 22%, Bayern München 50%23' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 28%, draw 22%, Bayern München 49%24' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 29%, draw 22%, Bayern München 49%25' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 29%, draw 23%, Bayern München 48%26' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 29%, draw 23%, Bayern München 48%27' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 30%, draw 23%, Bayern München 47%28' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 30%, draw 23%, Bayern München 47%29' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 31%, draw 23%, Bayern München 46%30' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 31%, draw 24%, Bayern München 46%31' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 31%, draw 24%, Bayern München 45%32' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 32%, draw 24%, Bayern München 44%33' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 32%, draw 24%, Bayern München 44%34' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 32%, draw 24%, Bayern München 43%35' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 33%, draw 25%, Bayern München 43%36' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 33%, draw 25%, Bayern München 42%37' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 34%, draw 25%, Bayern München 41%38' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 34%, draw 25%, Bayern München 41%39' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 35%, draw 25%, Bayern München 40%40' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 35%, draw 26%, Bayern München 39%41' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 36%, draw 26%, Bayern München 39%42' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 36%, draw 26%, Bayern München 38%44' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 37%, draw 26%, Bayern München 37%45' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 37%, draw 27%, Bayern München 36%45+2' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 38%, draw 27%, Bayern München 35%45+3' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 39%, draw 27%, Bayern München 34%45+4' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 39%, draw 27%, Bayern München 34%45+5' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 39%, draw 27%, Bayern München 34%HT · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 39%, draw 27%, Bayern München 34%47' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 40%, draw 27%, Bayern München 33%48' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 40%, draw 28%, Bayern München 32%49' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 41%, draw 28%, Bayern München 31%50' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 41%, draw 28%, Bayern München 31%51' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 42%, draw 28%, Bayern München 30%52' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 13%, draw 28%, Bayern München 58%53' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 13%, draw 29%, Bayern München 58%54' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 44%, draw 29%, Bayern München 27%55' · 1–0 · FC Augsburg 45%, draw 29%, Bayern München 26%56' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 31%, Bayern München 56%58' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 32%, Bayern München 54%59' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 33%, Bayern München 53%60' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 34%, Bayern München 52%61' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 35%, Bayern München 52%62' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 35%, Bayern München 51%63' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 36%, Bayern München 50%64' · 1–1 · FC Augsburg 14%, draw 37%, Bayern München 49%65' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 53%, draw 29%, Bayern München 18%66' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 54%, draw 29%, Bayern München 17%67' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 54%, draw 29%, Bayern München 17%68' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 55%, draw 29%, Bayern München 16%69' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 56%, draw 29%, Bayern München 15%70' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 57%, draw 29%, Bayern München 14%72' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 59%, draw 28%, Bayern München 13%73' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 60%, draw 28%, Bayern München 12%74' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 61%, draw 28%, Bayern München 11%75' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 62%, draw 27%, Bayern München 11%76' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 63%, draw 27%, Bayern München 10%77' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 64%, draw 27%, Bayern München 9%79' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 67%, draw 26%, Bayern München 8%80' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 68%, draw 25%, Bayern München 7%81' · 2–1 · FC Augsburg 69%, draw 24%, Bayern München 6%82' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 11%, draw 59%, Bayern München 30%83' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 10%, draw 61%, Bayern München 28%84' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 10%, draw 63%, Bayern München 27%85' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 10%, draw 65%, Bayern München 25%86' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 9%, draw 67%, Bayern München 24%87' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 9%, draw 69%, Bayern München 22%88' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 8%, draw 72%, Bayern München 20%89' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 7%, draw 74%, Bayern München 18%90' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 7%, draw 77%, Bayern München 16%90+1' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 6%, draw 80%, Bayern München 14%90+2' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 5%, draw 83%, Bayern München 12%90+3' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 4%, draw 87%, Bayern München 9%90+4' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 3%, draw 90%, Bayern München 7%90+5' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 2%, draw 94%, Bayern München 4%90+6' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 1%, draw 98%, Bayern München 1%90+7' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+8' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+9' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+10' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+11' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+12' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+13' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%90+14' · 2–2 · FC Augsburg 0%, draw 100%, Bayern München 0%

Last reading, 90+14': 0% · 100% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Bayern München 78% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 1'FC Augsburg:Robin Fellhauer 2090 +16*
  2. 42'FC Augsburg:Chrislain Matsima 2138 +13*
  3. 43'FC Augsburg:Rodrigo Ribeiro 1865 +29*
  4. 55'Bayern München:Ismael Saibari 2340 −8* assist Harry Kane 2551 −11
  5. 62'FC Augsburg:Hennes Behrens 1980 +5*
  6. 62'FC Augsburg:Anton Kade 2090 −5* for Seol Young-woo 2100 −2*
  7. 64'FC Augsburg:Rodrigo Ribeiro 1865 +29*
  8. 67'Bayern München:Nathaniel Brown 2180 −8* for Josip Stanišić 2595 −3
  9. 67'Bayern München:Serge Gnabry 2432 −3 for Ismael Saibari 2340 −8*
  10. 75'FC Augsburg:Mert Kömür 1821 −5* for Rodrigo Ribeiro 1865 +29*
  11. 80'Bayern München:Nathaniel Brown 2180 −8* assist Harry Kane 2551 −11
  12. 82'FC Augsburg:Michael Gregoritsch 1974 −3 for Arijon Ibrahimovic 1923 +5*
  13. 82'FC Augsburg:Jeffrey Gouweleeuw 1889 −13* for Juma Bah 2047 +2*
  14. 87'Bayern München:Tom Bischof 2293 0 for Aleksandar Pavlović 2597 −9
  15. 87'Bayern München:Lennart Karl 2310 0 for Luis Díaz 2617 −17*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GM. Neuer2284−17*
DJ. Stanišić2595−3
DD. Upamecano2639−12
DJ. Tah2523−12*
DA. Davies2451−8*
MJ. Kimmich2518−16*
MA. Pavlović2597−9
MM. Olise2652−12
MI. Saibari2340−8*
ML. Díaz2617−17*
FH. Kane2551−11
CV. Kompany2620−15*
Before kick-off: 9% · 13% · 78%(FC Augsburg · draw · Bayern München)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–3 (8%); the result 2–2 had 4%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: FC Augsburg €7.6M, Bayern München €40.1M.
  • FC Augsburg were without 1 expected starter: Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks (2062).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Bundesliga matchday 5: 521 points.
  • Draw chance was 17%, below the Bundesliga average of 26% this round.
  • Bundesliga: D. Upamecano was the highest-rated defender (2651).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

FC Augsburg

5th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 4

  • 19 SepLWerder Bremen 2041
  • 12 SepDBayer Leverkusen 2044
  • 6 SepWEintracht Frankfurt 2022
  • 30 AugWFC Schalke 04 2010
  • 22 AugWEnergie Cottbus 2005

Bayern München

2nd in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 4

  • 18 SepWUnion Berlin 2566
  • 13 SepWSV Elversberg 2465
  • 10 SepWBodo/Glimt 2552
  • 5 SepDFC Schalke 04 2481
  • 2 SepWVfL Osnabrück 2489

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
FC Augsburg7 /442.50%2%8%10th
Bayern München10 /480.893%100%0%1st
FC Augsburg
Bayern München

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Abdulay Bah
Abdulay Bah

FC Augsburg · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2046

H. Kane
H. Kane

Bayern München · +8.1 (Good) · Elo 2562

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Manuel Baum

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Vincent Kompany

Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

FC Augsburg: balanced profile (how Manuel Baum plays) · Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.