1. Lig · Regular Season - 11
Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul
Fatih KaragümrükTeam 1685KeçiörengücüTeam 1614- Ramazan Civelek 77'
- Mame Biram Diouf 45', 65'
We gave Fatih Karagümrük 49% to win: Keçiörengücü won.
- Ahmed Traore –18'Fatih Karagümrük:Ahmed Traore –
- Candan Baskale –24'Fatih Karagümrük:Candan Baskale –
- 34'Wellington Ferreira Nascimento –Keçiörengücü:Wellington Ferreira Nascimento –
- 45'Mame Biram Diouf – assist E. Develi –Keçiörengücü:Mame Biram Diouf – assist E. Develi –
- Marius Tresor Doh – for Manolis Siopis –45'Fatih Karagümrük:Marius Tresor Doh – for Manolis Siopis –
- 45'Jefferson – for Alcídio RaiceKeçiörengücü:Jefferson – for Alcídio Raice
- Manolis Siopis –45+3'Fatih Karagümrük:Manolis Siopis –
- 63'Moryke Fofana – for Francis Ezeh –Keçiörengücü:Moryke Fofana – for Francis Ezeh –
- 63'Herculano·Nabian – for Odise Roshi –Keçiörengücü:Herculano·Nabian – for Odise Roshi –
- 65'Mame Biram Diouf – assist Moryke Fofana –Keçiörengücü:Mame Biram Diouf – assist Moryke Fofana –
- Dorukhan Toköz – for Yaya Onogo –66'Fatih Karagümrük:Dorukhan Toköz – for Yaya Onogo –
- Ramazan Civelek – for J. Esen66'Fatih Karagümrük:Ramazan Civelek – for J. Esen
- Aleksandar Pešić – for Cenk Tosun –66'Fatih Karagümrük:Aleksandar Pešić – for Cenk Tosun –
- 73'Mehmet Erdogan –Keçiörengücü:Mehmet Erdogan –
- 75'Süleyman Lus –Keçiörengücü:Süleyman Lus –
- Ramazan Civelek –77'Fatih Karagümrük:Ramazan Civelek –
- 85'Oguzhan Ayaydin – for E. Develi –Keçiörengücü:Oguzhan Ayaydin – for E. Develi –
- 90+4'Tuncer Duhan Aksu – for Süleyman Lus –Keçiörengücü:Tuncer Duhan Aksu – for Süleyman Lus –
Before kick-off (provisional): 49% · 27% · 24%(Fatih Karagümrük · draw · Keçiörengücü)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–2 had 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fatih Karagümrük €548K, Keçiörengücü €257K.
- Keçiörengücü were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fatih Karagümrük
12th in 1. Lig · 13 pts from 10
- 15 OctLMardin 1969 Turkey 1 Lig1622
- 11 OctDMuğlaspor Turkey 1 Lig1680
- 19 SepWEsenler Erokspor Turkey 1 Lig1646
- 13 SepDManisa F.K. Turkey 1 Lig1686
- 6 SepLBatman Petrolspor Turkey 1 Lig1724
Keçiörengücü
7th in 1. Lig · 17 pts from 10
- 14 OctDIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1644
- 9 OctWBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1608
- 19 SepDSivasspor Turkey 1 Lig1617
- 12 SepDVanspor FK Turkey 1 Lig1606
- 5 SepWSarıyer Turkey 1 Lig1576
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 13 /10 | 54.4 | <1% | 10% | 1% | 8th |
| Keçiörengücü | 17 /10 | 52.7 | 0% | 7% | 1% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fatih Karagümrük · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1808
Keçiörengücü · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1604
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fatih Karagümrük: balanced profile (how Aleksandar Stanojević plays) · Keçiörengücü: balanced profile (how Osman Zeki Korkmaz plays)