1. Lig · Regular Season - 15
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul
Fatih Karagümrük host Boluspor on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (1. Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fatih Karagümrük 69%, draw 19%, Boluspor 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fatih Karagümrük €502K, Boluspor €166K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of 1. Lig matchday 15: 313 points.
- Draw chance 19%, below the 1. Lig average of 25% this round.
- Boluspor's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fatih Karagümrük goals first.
- 2–013%
- 1–012%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–09%
- 3–17%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: Fatih Karagümrük 1697 · Boluspor 1384
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fatih Karagümrük · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1797
Boluspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1615
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fatih Karagümrük
9th in 1. Lig · 19 pts from 14
- 8 NovWBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1630
- 31 OctLPendikspor Turkey 1 Lig1647
- 24 OctWSarıyer Turkey 1 Lig1543
- 19 OctLKeçiörengücü Turkey 1 Lig1548
- 15 OctLMardin 1969 Turkey 1 Lig1612
Boluspor
20th in 1. Lig · 4 pts from 13
- 8 NovLBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1390
- 1 NovWSivasspor Turkey 1 Lig1285
- 23 OctLVanspor FK Turkey 1 Lig1302
- 18 OctLIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1287
- 10 OctLAntalyaspor Turkey 1 Lig1354
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 19 /14 | 55.4 | <1% | 12% | <1% | 8th |
| Boluspor | 4 /13 | 22.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fatih Karagümrük: balanced profile · Boluspor: balanced profile (how Daniel Farrar plays)