Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 8
Farense vs Penafiel
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Farense host Penafiel on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Farense 52%, draw 26%, Penafiel 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Farense €349K, Penafiel €280K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Segunda Liga): Farense rank #14 of 14, Penafiel #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Farense goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Farense 1612 · Penafiel 1488
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Farense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1557
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Farense
3rd in Segunda Liga · 14 pts from 7
- 11 OctWFeirense Liga Portugal 21622
- 4 OctWChaves Liga Portugal 21605
- 13 SepDAVS Liga Portugal 21574
- 30 AugLSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21578
- 16 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21581
Penafiel
4th in Segunda Liga · 13 pts from 7
- 9 OctLAVS Liga Portugal 21518
- 12 SepWFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21456
- 5 SepWAcademica Liga Portugal 21481
- 30 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21477
- 8 AugLPortimonense Liga Portugal 21497
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 14 /7 | 57.4 | 26% | 71% | <1% | 1st |
| Penafiel | 13 /7 | 47.9 | 2% | 18% | 5% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · low-volume
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Farense: direct (how José Augusto Gonçalves Pinto de Almeida Faria plays) · Penafiel: balanced profile (how José Manuel Aira Lindoso plays)