Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
Famalicao vs Arouca
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 20:45 UTC · Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Famalicao host Arouca on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Famalicao 44%, draw 28%, Arouca 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Famalicao €2.1M, Arouca €1.4M.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Primeira Liga): Famalicao rank #3 of 18, Arouca #18.
- Only 2 of Famalicao's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Famalicao goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Famalicao 1799 · Arouca 1774
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Famalicao · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 1930
Arouca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1864
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Famalicao
13th in Primeira Liga · 7 pts from 8
- 12 OctLAlverca Primeira Liga1813
- 19 SepWNacional Primeira Liga1797
- 13 SepDSporting CP Primeira Liga1787
- 5 SepDEstrela Primeira Liga1786
- 30 AugDGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1826
Arouca
5th in Primeira Liga · 14 pts from 8
- 11 OctWEstrela Primeira Liga1815
- 19 SepDSporting CP Primeira Liga1797
- 13 SepLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1818
- 7 SepDEstoril Primeira Liga1810
- 29 AugWMaritimo Primeira Liga1812
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 7 /8 | 40.5 | 0% | 1% | 8% | 9th |
| Arouca | 14 /8 | 47.0 | 0% | 8% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Famalicao: balanced profile (how Carlos Carvalhal plays) · Arouca: balanced profile