Premiership · Regular Season - 10
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
Falkirk host Kilmarnock on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Premiership); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Falkirk 40%, draw 29%, Kilmarnock 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Falkirk €379K, Kilmarnock €398K.
- Home advantage makes Falkirk the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Falkirk goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
Team Elo: Falkirk 1579 · Kilmarnock 1623
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Falkirk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1655
Kilmarnock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1668
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Falkirk
9th in Premiership · 9 pts from 9
- 17 OctWHibernian Scotland Premiership1586
- 10 OctLDundee Scotland Premiership1621
- 19 SepDST Johnstone Scotland Premiership1611
- 15 SepWHeart Of Midlothian Scotland Premiership1584
- 5 SepDDundee Utd Scotland Premiership1579
Kilmarnock
11th in Premiership · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctWMotherwell Scotland Premiership1618
- 10 OctLRangers Scotland Premiership1627
- 19 SepDHeart Of Midlothian Scotland Premiership1618
- 15 SepWHibernian Scotland Premiership1609
- 5 SepDAberdeen Scotland Premiership1574
Season outlook
From the Premiership simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 9 /9 | 33.8 | 0% | 2% | 64% | 12th |
| Kilmarnock | 8 /9 | 35.0 | 0% | 3% | 57% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Falkirk: balanced profile (how John McGlynn plays) · Kilmarnock: direct (how Neill McCann plays)