Premiership · Regular Season - 8
Falkirk 1–2 Dundee
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
FalkirkTeam 1584DundeeTeam 1665- Jacob Murrell 31' (pen)
- Owen Bevan 52'
- Ashley Hay 90+1'
We gave Falkirk 37% to win: Dundee won.
- Jacob Murrell 1567 −8* (pen.)31'Falkirk:Jacob Murrell 1567 −8* (pen.)
- 52'Owen Bevan 1636 +35* assist Drey Wright 1770 0*Dundee:Owen Bevan 1636 +35* assist Drey Wright 1770 0*
- Ben Parkinson 928 −8* for Ben krauhaus 1547 −8*70'Falkirk:Ben Parkinson 928 −8* for Ben krauhaus 1547 −8*
- Finn Yeats 1528 −8* for Jacob Murrell 1567 −8*70'Falkirk:Finn Yeats 1528 −8* for Jacob Murrell 1567 −8*
- Craig Sibbald 1568 −11* for Finley Frank Barbrook 1574 −8*85'Falkirk:Craig Sibbald 1568 −11* for Finley Frank Barbrook 1574 −8*
- 90+1'Ashley Hay 1626 +37* assist Ethan Hamilton 1804 +14*Dundee:Ashley Hay 1626 +37* assist Ethan Hamilton 1804 +14*
- Jack McMillan 1668 −9* for Ryan Strain 1628 −15*90+1'Falkirk:Jack McMillan 1668 −9* for Ryan Strain 1628 −15*
- Conor McLeod 1388 −8* for Ethan Ross 1434 −8*90+1'Falkirk:Conor McLeod 1388 −8* for Ethan Ross 1434 −8*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 37% · 29% · 34%(Falkirk · draw · Dundee)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Falkirk €372K, Dundee €502K.
- Home advantage made Falkirk the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Premiership): Falkirk ranked #4 of 12, Dundee #12.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Falkirk
11th in Premiership · 6 pts from 7
- 19 SepDST Johnstone Scotland Premiership1611
- 15 SepWHeart Of Midlothian Scotland Premiership1584
- 5 SepDDundee Utd Scotland Premiership1579
- 2 SepLRangers Scotland Premiership1582
- 29 AugLCeltic Scotland Premiership1532
Dundee
4th in Premiership · 10 pts from 7
- 19 SepWMotherwell Scotland Premiership1646
- 6 SepLHeart Of Midlothian Scotland Premiership1676
- 2 SepDST Johnstone Scotland Premiership1693
- 30 AugLHibernian Scotland Premiership1678
- 22 AugWDundee Utd Scotland Premiership1643
Season outlook
From the Premiership simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 6 /7 | 33.6 | 0% | 2% | 63% | 12th |
| Dundee | 10 /7 | 41.7 | 0% | 18% | 17% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Falkirk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Good) · Elo 1554
Dundee · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1823
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Falkirk: balanced profile (how John McGlynn plays) · Dundee: direct (how Steven Pressley plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.