Premier League · Regular Season - 12
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Fakel host Rodina Moskva on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fakel 38%, draw 29%, Rodina Moskva 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fakel €540K, Rodina Moskva €700K.
- Home advantage makes Fakel the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Fakel's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fakel goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Fakel 1556 · Rodina Moskva 1639
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fakel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1576
Rodina Moskva · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1653
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fakel
15th in Premier Liga · 6 pts from 11
- 17 OctWKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League1546
- 10 OctLLokomotiv Russia Premier League1545
- 16 SepLSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1541
- 12 SepDBaltika Russia Premier League1532
- 5 SepLFC Rostov Russia Premier League1565
Rodina Moskva
16th in Premier Liga · 5 pts from 10
- 11 OctLCSKA Moscow Russia Premier League1698
- 16 SepDRubin Russia Premier League1666
- 11 SepLKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League1632
- 6 SepLDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1672
- 30 AugLBaltika Russia Premier League1691
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel | 6 /11 | 22.5 | 0% | 0% | 89% | 16th |
| Rodina Moskva | 5 /10 | 27.0 | 0% | 0% | 63% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile