League Two · Regular Season - 13
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · St James Park, Exeter
Exeter City host Fleetwood Town on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Exeter City 39%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Exeter City €269K, Fleetwood Town €192K.
- Home advantage makes Exeter City the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Exeter City goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Exeter City 1596 · Fleetwood Town 1620
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Exeter City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1726
Fleetwood Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1631
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Exeter City
16th in League Two · 13 pts from 11
- 17 OctDColchester England League Two1603
- 10 OctWShrewsbury England League Two1571
- 6 OctDOxford United England EFL Trophy1528
- 3 OctWRotherham England League Two1542
- 26 SepLBristol Rovers England League Two1556
Fleetwood Town
12th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctWRotherham England League Two1612
- 10 OctDWalsall England League Two1613
- 6 OctWBarnsley England EFL Trophy1677
- 3 OctLSalford City England League Two1624
- 26 SepLRochdale England League Two1588
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 13 /11 | 57.7 | <1% | 3% | 13% | 15th |
| Fleetwood Town | 14 /11 | 61.3 | <1% | 8% | 5% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-block · low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Exeter City: balanced profile (how Matthew James Taylor plays) · Fleetwood Town: balanced profile (how Matthew Lawlor plays)