League Two · Regular Season - 12
Exeter City vs Crewe
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · St James Park, Exeter
Exeter City host Crewe on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Exeter City 31%, draw 29%, Crewe 40%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Exeter City €269K, Crewe €329K.
- Crewe are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Exeter City goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Exeter City 1596 · Crewe 1725
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Exeter City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1726
Crewe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1826
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Exeter City
16th in League Two · 13 pts from 11
- 17 OctDColchester England League Two1603
- 10 OctWShrewsbury England League Two1571
- 6 OctDOxford United England EFL Trophy1528
- 3 OctWRotherham England League Two1542
- 26 SepLBristol Rovers England League Two1556
Crewe
3rd in League Two · 21 pts from 11
- 17 OctWRochdale England League Two1725
- 10 OctWSwindon Town England League Two1690
- 6 OctDBlackpool England EFL Trophy1568
- 3 OctWBristol Rovers England League Two1647
- 26 SepDRotherham England League Two1654
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 13 /11 | 57.7 | <1% | 3% | 13% | 15th |
| Crewe | 21 /11 | 75.8 | 13% | 68% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Exeter City: balanced profile (how Matthew James Taylor plays) · Crewe: balanced profile (how Lee Bell plays)