League Two · Regular Season - 15
Exeter City vs Cheltenham
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · St James Park, Exeter
Exeter City host Cheltenham on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Exeter City 43%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Exeter City €268K, Cheltenham €167K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (League Two): Exeter City rank #23 of 25, Cheltenham #1.
- Cheltenham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.2 over 180 days.
- Exeter City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Exeter City goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Exeter City 1643 · Cheltenham 1616
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Exeter City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1746
Cheltenham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1694
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Exeter City
8th in League Two · 19 pts from 13
- 24 OctWFleetwood Town England League Two1627
- 20 OctWCrewe England League Two1610
- 17 OctDColchester England League Two1603
- 10 OctWShrewsbury England League Two1571
- 6 OctDOxford United England EFL Trophy1528
Cheltenham
3rd in League Two · 21 pts from 13
- 24 OctWNewport County England League Two1568
- 20 OctWFleetwood Town England League Two1521
- 17 OctLOldham England League Two1538
- 13 OctDTottenham Hotspur U21 England EFL Trophy1585
- 10 OctLSalford City England League Two1560
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 19 /13 | 63.2 | <1% | 12% | 3% | 8th |
| Cheltenham | 21 /13 | 63.1 | <1% | 10% | 4% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Exeter City: balanced profile (how M. Taylor plays) · Cheltenham: direct (how S. Cotterill plays)