Eredivisie · Regular Season - 8
Excelsior 1–5 Groningen
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:45 UTC · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
ExcelsiorTeam 1723GroningenTeam 1834Match story
Excelsior · draw · GroningenBefore kick-off: 33% · 28% · 39%
Last reading, 90+7': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Irakli Yegoian 36' (pen)
- Marco Rente 7', 90+5'
- Stijn van Gassel 38' (og)
- Thom Van Bergen 64' (pen)
- Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 67'
We gave Groningen 39% to win: they did.
- 7'Marco Rente 1952 +60*Groningen:Marco Rente 1952 +60*
- 20'David van der Werff 1917 +17*Groningen:David van der Werff 1917 +17*
- Irakli Yegoian 1827 −45 (pen.)36'Excelsior:Irakli Yegoian 1827 −45 (pen.)
- 38'Stijn van Gassel 1863 −27* (own goal)Groningen:Stijn van Gassel 1863 −27* (own goal)
- 64'Thom Van Bergen 1987 +50* (pen.)Groningen:Thom Van Bergen 1987 +50* (pen.)
- Kasey Bos 1705 −8* for Simon Janssen 1748 −11*65'Excelsior:Kasey Bos 1705 −8* for Simon Janssen 1748 −11*
- Mario Domínguez Franco 1564 −8* for David Garden 1602 −8*65'Excelsior:Mario Domínguez Franco 1564 −8* for David Garden 1602 −8*
- Daniel van Vianen 1771 −9* for Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson 1539 −8*65'Excelsior:Daniel van Vianen 1771 −9* for Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson 1539 −8*
- Valentin Sulzbacher 1614 −8* for Eric da Silva Moreira 1585 −8*65'Excelsior:Valentin Sulzbacher 1614 −8* for Eric da Silva Moreira 1585 −8*
- 66'Tygo Land 1921 −1* for Jacob Ondrejka 1919 +11*Groningen:Tygo Land 1921 −1* for Jacob Ondrejka 1919 +11*
- 67'Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 1875 +84 assist Pelle Clement 1888 +64*Groningen:Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 1875 +84 assist Pelle Clement 1888 +64*
- 72'Mark Csinger 2070 +3 for Hans Hateboer 1888 +10*Groningen:Mark Csinger 2070 +3 for Hans Hateboer 1888 +10*
- 80'Tygo Land 1921 −1*Groningen:Tygo Land 1921 −1*
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh 1689 −12* for Aymen sliti 1860 −24*81'Excelsior:Alireza Jahanbakhsh 1689 −12* for Aymen sliti 1860 −24*
- 84'Nils Eggens 1513 −4* for Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 1875 +84Groningen:Nils Eggens 1513 −4* for Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 1875 +84
- 85'Ryan Metu 1499 −4* for Thom Van Bergen 1987 +50*Groningen:Ryan Metu 1499 −4* for Thom Van Bergen 1987 +50*
- 85'Oskar Zawada 1615 −7* for David van der Werff 1917 +17*Groningen:Oskar Zawada 1615 −7* for David van der Werff 1917 +17*
- 90+5'Marco Rente 1952 +60*Groningen:Marco Rente 1952 +60*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 33% · 28% · 39%(Excelsior · draw · Groningen)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–5 had <1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Excelsior €1.1M, Groningen €1.8M.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Excelsior
7th in Eredivisie · 11 pts from 7
- 19 SepDAjax Eredivisie1766
- 13 SepLUtrecht Eredivisie1771
- 8 SepDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie1730
- 5 SepWWillem II Eredivisie1735
- 29 AugWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1763
Groningen
8th in Eredivisie · 11 pts from 7
- 18 SepWPEC Zwolle Eredivisie1863
- 12 SepDGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1855
- 6 SepDTwente Eredivisie1860
- 28 AugLFortuna Sittard Eredivisie1873
- 23 AugLPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie1877
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 11 /7 | 42.1 | 0% | <1% | 5% | 9th |
| Groningen | 11 /7 | 46.3 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Excelsior · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1869
Groningen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1937
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Excelsior: balanced profile (how Ruben den Uil plays) · Groningen: balanced profile (how Dick Lukkien plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.