EFL Cup · Round of 16
Everton vs Newcastle
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Everton host Newcastle on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (EFL Cup); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Everton 40%, draw 29%, Newcastle 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Everton €24.0M, Newcastle €29.7M.
- Home advantage makes Everton the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Everton goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Everton 2279 · Newcastle 2334
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Everton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2377
Newcastle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2397
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Everton
11th in Premier League · 10 pts from 8
- 24 OctLArsenal Premier League2272
- 17 OctLChelsea Premier League2322
- 11 OctDHull City Premier League2326
- 19 SepWIpswich Premier League2328
- 16 SepWWolves England League Cup2272
Newcastle
8th in Premier League · 11 pts from 8
- 25 OctWCrystal Palace Premier League2299
- 17 OctLAston Villa Premier League2358
- 12 OctLCoventry Premier League2368
- 19 SepWHull City Premier League2288
- 14 SepLLeeds Premier League2350
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Everton: direct (how D. Moyes plays) · Newcastle: balanced profile (how Matthias Jaissle plays)