Taça de Portugal · Round of 32
Estrela vs Portimonense
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Estrela host Portimonense on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Taça de Portugal); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Estrela 63%, draw 22%, Portimonense 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estrela €1.2M, Portimonense €279K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Estrela goals first.
- 1–012%
- 2–012%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 0–07%
- Other scores41%
Team Elo: Estrela 1697 · Portimonense 1469
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estrela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1746
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estrela
12th in Primeira Liga · 10 pts from 11
- 8 NovLBenfica Primeira Liga1693
- 31 OctLMoreirense Primeira Liga1694
- 24 OctLCasa Pia Primeira Liga1734
- 11 OctLArouca Primeira Liga1744
- 20 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1779
Portimonense
10th in Segunda Liga · 14 pts from 10
- 8 NovWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21444
- 31 OctDTorreense Liga Portugal 21444
- 24 OctLSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21459
- 10 OctWAmarante Liga Portugal 21442
- 12 SepLTondela Liga Portugal 21482
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estrela: direct (how Pepa plays) · Portimonense: balanced profile (how Alex plays)