Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9
Estrela vs Casa Pia
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Estrela host Casa Pia on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Estrela 45%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estrela €1.3M, Casa Pia €987K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Primeira Liga): Estrela rank #2 of 18, Casa Pia #16.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Estrela goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Estrela 1711 · Casa Pia 1669
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estrela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1798
Casa Pia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1687
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estrela
10th in Primeira Liga · 10 pts from 8
- 11 OctLArouca Primeira Liga1746
- 20 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1777
- 14 SepDRio Ave Primeira Liga1749
- 10 SepWSC Braga Primeira Liga1678
- 5 SepDFamalicao Primeira Liga1745
Casa Pia
17th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 8
- 10 OctLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1664
- 20 SepWEstoril Primeira Liga1630
- 12 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga1631
- 6 SepDVitória SC Primeira Liga1646
- 30 AugLMoreirense Primeira Liga1654
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 10 /8 | 39.5 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 12th |
| Casa Pia | 4 /8 | 31.6 | 0% | 0% | 56% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estrela: direct (how Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe plays) · Casa Pia: direct · low-volume (how Filipe Emanuel Curto Coelho plays)