Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
Estrela vs Benfica
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 20:30 UTC
Estrela host Benfica on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Estrela 10%, draw 18%, Benfica 72%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estrela €1.3M, Benfica €13.5M.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primeira Liga): Estrela rank #16 of 18, Benfica #1.
- Benfica's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Estrela goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–29%
- 0–39%
- 1–18%
- 1–38%
- 0–18%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Estrela 1702 · Benfica 2234
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estrela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1798
Benfica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2362
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estrela
10th in Primeira Liga · 10 pts from 8
- 11 OctLArouca Primeira Liga1746
- 20 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1777
- 14 SepDRio Ave Primeira Liga1749
- 10 SepWSC Braga Primeira Liga1678
- 5 SepDFamalicao Primeira Liga1745
Benfica
2nd in Primeira Liga · 19 pts from 8
- 22 OctWOmonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League2175
- 15 OctWCeltic UEFA Europa League2267
- 11 OctWVitória SC Primeira Liga2239
- 20 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga2248
- 16 SepWAC Milan UEFA Europa League2124
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 10 /8 | 38.7 | 0% | 1% | 14% | 11th |
| Benfica | 19 /8 | 77.8 | 15% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estrela: direct (how Pepa plays) · Benfica: shot-heavy · possession-based (how Marco Silva plays)