Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
Estoril vs Maritimo
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Estoril host Maritimo on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Estoril 41%, draw 29%, Maritimo 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estoril €1.3M, Maritimo €622K.
- Home advantage makes Estoril the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Estoril goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Estoril 1693 · Maritimo 1696
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estoril · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1689
Maritimo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1920
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estoril
18th in Primeira Liga · 2 pts from 8
- 10 OctLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1695
- 20 SepLCasa Pia Primeira Liga1680
- 14 SepLSC Braga Primeira Liga1683
- 7 SepDArouca Primeira Liga1671
- 31 AugLBenfica Primeira Liga1701
Maritimo
13th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 9
- 23 OctLVitória SC Primeira Liga1699
- 10 OctLFC Porto Primeira Liga1707
- 19 SepDGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1707
- 14 SepLMoreirense Primeira Liga1675
- 5 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1686
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 2 /8 | 30.0 | 0% | 0% | 62% | 18th |
| Maritimo | 8 /9 | 35.8 | 0% | 0% | 27% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estoril: balanced profile (how Vasco Matos plays) · Maritimo: balanced profile (how M. van der Gaag plays)