Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6
Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Estac TroyesTeam 1781MarseilleTeam 2039- Amine Harit 50'
- Himad Abdelli 90+8' (pen)
We gave Marseille 50% to win: they did.
- Lucas Maronnier –22'Estac Troyes:Lucas Maronnier –
- 45'Angel Gomes –Marseille:Angel Gomes –
- 50'Amine Harit – assist Emerson Palmieri –Marseille:Amine Harit – assist Emerson Palmieri –
- Dermane Karim –58'Estac Troyes:Dermane Karim –
- Renaud Ripart – for Iron Gomis –61'Estac Troyes:Renaud Ripart – for Iron Gomis –
- 63'Keyliane Abdallah – for Amine Harit –Marseille:Keyliane Abdallah – for Amine Harit –
- 63'Neal Maupay – for Amine Gouiri –Marseille:Neal Maupay – for Amine Gouiri –
- Hugo Picard – for Kandet Diawara –69'Estac Troyes:Hugo Picard – for Kandet Diawara –
- 73'Tochukwu Nnadi – for Nouhoum KamissokoMarseille:Tochukwu Nnadi – for Nouhoum Kamissoko
- Alexandre Philiponeau – for Jérémy Le Douaron –77'Estac Troyes:Alexandre Philiponeau – for Jérémy Le Douaron –
- Christ Batola – for Dermane Karim –78'Estac Troyes:Christ Batola – for Dermane Karim –
- Timothee Nkada – for Mouhamed Diop –78'Estac Troyes:Timothee Nkada – for Mouhamed Diop –
- 87'Geoffrey Kondogbia – for Angel Gomes –Marseille:Geoffrey Kondogbia – for Angel Gomes –
- 87'Faris Moumbagna – for Igor Paixão –Marseille:Faris Moumbagna – for Igor Paixão –
- Antoine Mille –88'Estac Troyes:Antoine Mille –
- Patrick Beach –90+6'Estac Troyes:Patrick Beach –
- 90+8'Himad Abdelli – (pen.)Marseille:Himad Abdelli – (pen.)
Before kick-off (provisional): 23% · 27% · 50%(Estac Troyes · draw · Marseille)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–2 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estac Troyes €1.4M, Marseille €10.4M.
- Estac Troyes were without 1 expected starter: A. Ouzenadji (1592).
- Marseille were without 2 expected starters: T. Weah (2167) and P. Højbjerg (2160).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estac Troyes
16th in Ligue 1 · 4 pts from 5
- 19 SepLAngers Ligue 11782
- 13 SepLLille Ligue 11829
- 6 SepLStrasbourg Ligue 11841
- 29 AugWLorient Ligue 11784
- 22 AugDParis FC Ligue 11772
Marseille
17th in Ligue 1 · 3 pts from 5
- 20 SepLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12118
- 17 SepLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League2048
- 11 SepLRennes Ligue 12149
- 6 SepLParis FC Ligue 12166
- 30 AugLMonaco Ligue 12158
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 4 /5 | 31.9 | 0% | 0% | 54% | 18th |
| Marseille | 3 /5 | 49.0 | 0% | 10% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estac Troyes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1792
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1950
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estac Troyes: dribble-heavy (how Stéphane Dumont plays) · Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays)