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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Estac Troyes crestEstac TroyesTeam 1747
1–3
Full time
HT 1–2
Lens crestLensTeam 2066

Match story

Estac Troyes · draw · Lens

Before kick-off: 20% · 25% · 56%

Live chances: Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 25%, Lens 55%3' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 25%, Lens 55%4' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 25%, Lens 55%5' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 25%, Lens 55%6' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 55%7' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 55%8' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 54%9' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 54%10' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 54%11' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 54%12' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 26%, Lens 54%13' · 0–0 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 27%, Lens 53%14' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%15' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%16' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%17' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%18' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%19' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%20' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%21' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%22' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%23' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%24' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%25' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%26' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%27' · 0–1 · Estac Troyes 9%, draw 18%, Lens 73%28' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 29%, Lens 50%29' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 29%, Lens 50%30' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 30%, Lens 50%31' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 30%, Lens 50%32' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 30%, Lens 49%33' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 30%, Lens 49%34' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 31%, Lens 49%35' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 31%, Lens 49%36' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 31%, Lens 48%37' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 31%, Lens 48%38' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 32%, Lens 48%39' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 32%, Lens 47%40' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 32%, Lens 47%41' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 33%, Lens 47%42' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 33%, Lens 47%43' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 33%, Lens 46%44' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 21%, draw 34%, Lens 46%45' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 34%, Lens 46%45+1' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 34%, Lens 45%45+2' · 1–1 · Estac Troyes 20%, draw 35%, Lens 45%45+3' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%45+4' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%45+5' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%45+6' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%HT · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%46' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%47' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%48' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%49' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 7%, draw 19%, Lens 74%50' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 6%, draw 19%, Lens 75%51' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 6%, draw 19%, Lens 75%52' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 6%, draw 19%, Lens 75%53' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 6%, draw 19%, Lens 75%54' · 1–2 · Estac Troyes 6%, draw 19%, Lens 75%55' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 95%56' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 95%57' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 95%58' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 96%59' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 96%60' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 96%61' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 1%, draw 4%, Lens 96%62' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 96%63' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 96%64' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 96%65' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 96%66' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 97%67' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 97%68' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 97%69' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 97%70' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 3%, Lens 97%71' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 97%72' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 97%73' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 98%74' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 98%75' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 98%76' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 98%77' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 98%78' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 2%, Lens 98%79' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 98%80' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%81' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%82' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%83' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%84' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%85' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%86' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%87' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%88' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 1%, Lens 99%89' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%90' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%90+1' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%90+2' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%90+3' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%90+4' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%90+5' · 1–3 · Estac Troyes 0%, draw 0%, Lens 100%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Lens 56% to win: they did.

  1. 13'Lens:Adrien Monfray 1753 −12 (own goal)
  2. 26'Estac Troyes:Timothee Nkada 1749 −6
  3. 45+2'Lens:Odsonne Édouard 2134 +27 assist Florian Thauvin 2170 +19
  4. 55'Lens:Ruben Aguilar 2116 +26 assist Florian Thauvin 2170 +19
  5. 60'Lens:Samson Baidoo 2207 +3 for Jean-Clair Todibo 2191 0*
  6. 60'Estac Troyes:Kandet Diawara 1731 −1 for Timothee Nkada 1749 −6
  7. 64'Estac Troyes:Noah Donkor 1452 −8* for Paolo Gozzi Iweru 1723 −1
  8. 67'Lens:Mezian Soares Mesloub 1770 +8 for Florian Thauvin 2170 +19
  9. 67'Lens:Franjo Ivanovic 2251 +2 for Odsonne Édouard 2134 +27
  10. 67'Lens:Amadou Haidara 2108 +2 for Yassine Titraoui 1896 +18
  11. 72'Lens:Saud Abdulhamid 2212 +2 for Ruben Aguilar 2116 +26
  12. 76'Estac Troyes:Junior Diaz 1853 −10
  13. 76'Estac Troyes:Renaud Ripart 1658 −5
  14. 77'Lens:Samson Baidoo 2207 +3
  15. 79'Estac Troyes:Jérémy Le Douaron 1815 −2 for Mouhamed Diop 1850 −9
  16. 79'Estac Troyes:Iron Gomis 1685 −1 for Lucas Maronnier 1763 −4
  17. 82'Lens:Amadou Haidara 2108 +2

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-2-1
GP. Beach1861−11
DL. Maronnier1763−4
DA. Monfray1753−12
DM. Diaz1853−10
DP. Gozzi1723−1
MM. Diop1850−9
MD. Karim1855−11
MA. Mille1807−9
MM. Ifnaoui1816−17*
MT. Nkada1749−6
FR. Ripart1658−5
CS. Dumont1801−13
GR. Risser2218+28
DK. Antonio1973+60
DI. Ganiou2225+10
DJ. Todibo21910*
MR. Aguilar2116+26
MY. Titraoui1896+18
MA. Bulatović2046+18
MM. Skóraś2013+19
MF. Thauvin2170+19
MF. Sotoca1862+18
FO. Édouard2134+27
CDino Nicolas Toppmöller2156
Before kick-off: 20% · 25% · 56%(Estac Troyes · draw · Lens)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–3 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Estac Troyes €1.3M, Lens €9.0M.
  • Estac Troyes were without 1 expected starter: A. Ouzenadji (1592).
  • Lens were without 3 expected starters: J. Gradit (2083), M. Udol (2198) and A. Sima (2095).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 7: 286 points.
  • Style contrast in dribbling (Ligue 1): Estac Troyes ranked #2 of 18, Lens #15.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Estac Troyes

17th in Ligue 1 · 4 pts from 6

  • 11 OctLMarseille 1811
  • 19 SepLAngers 1782
  • 13 SepLLille 1829
  • 6 SepLStrasbourg 1841
  • 29 AugWLorient 1784

Lens

11th in Ligue 1 · 7 pts from 6

  • 13 OctLSporting CP 2120
  • 9 OctWLyon 2037
  • 18 SepLMonaco 2045
  • 13 SepDLe Mans 2076
  • 10 SepWSlavia Praha 2059

Season outlook

From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Estac Troyes4 /630.30%0%62%18th
Lens7 /650.70%13%<1%7th
Estac Troyes
Lens

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Ligue 1

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Monfray
A. Monfray

Estac Troyes · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1765

I. Ganiou
I. Ganiou

Lens · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2215

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Stéphane Dumont

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Dino Nicolas Toppmöller

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Estac Troyes: dribble-heavy (how Stéphane Dumont plays) · Lens: balanced profile (how Dino Nicolas Toppmöller plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.