Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Estac Troyes host Le Mans on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Estac Troyes 45%, draw 28%, Le Mans 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estac Troyes €1.5M, Le Mans €632K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Ligue 1): Estac Troyes rank #2 of 18, Le Mans #16.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Estac Troyes goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Estac Troyes 1773 · Le Mans 1726
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estac Troyes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1753
Le Mans · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1870
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estac Troyes
17th in Ligue 1 · 4 pts from 7
- 17 OctLLens Ligue 11797
- 11 OctLMarseille Ligue 11811
- 19 SepLAngers Ligue 11782
- 13 SepLLille Ligue 11829
- 6 SepLStrasbourg Ligue 11841
Le Mans
16th in Ligue 1 · 6 pts from 7
- 16 OctLToulouse Ligue 11723
- 10 OctLParis Saint Germain Ligue 11727
- 19 SepWLorient Ligue 11700
- 13 SepDLens Ligue 11656
- 5 SepDNice Ligue 11692
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 4 /7 | 28.8 | 0% | 0% | 66% | 18th |
| Le Mans | 6 /7 | 27.8 | 0% | 0% | 73% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estac Troyes: dribble-heavy (how Stéphane Dumont plays) · Le Mans: balanced profile (how Patrick Videira plays)