Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Estac Troyes host Le Havre on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Estac Troyes 41%, draw 29%, Le Havre 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Estac Troyes €1.3M, Le Havre €3.7M.
- Home advantage makes Estac Troyes the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Ligue 1): Estac Troyes rank #2 of 18, Le Havre #17.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Estac Troyes goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Estac Troyes 1803 · Le Havre 1807
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Estac Troyes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1822
Le Havre · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1879
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Estac Troyes
16th in Ligue 1 · 8 pts from 9
- 31 OctWLe Mans Ligue 11784
- 25 OctDToulouse Ligue 11781
- 17 OctLLens Ligue 11795
- 11 OctLMarseille Ligue 11810
- 19 SepLAngers Ligue 11782
Le Havre
18th in Ligue 1 · 2 pts from 9
- 30 OctLParis Saint Germain Ligue 11833
- 25 OctLMarseille Ligue 11787
- 18 OctLAuxerre Ligue 11816
- 10 OctLLille Ligue 11826
- 19 SepLToulouse Ligue 11816
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 8 /9 | 31.2 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 16th |
| Le Havre | 2 /9 | 26.4 | 0% | 0% | 77% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Estac Troyes: dribble-heavy (how Stéphane Dumont plays) · Le Havre: direct (how D. Digard plays)