1. Lig · Regular Season - 13
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Esenler Stadium, Istanbul
Esenler Erokspor host Keçiörengücü on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (1. Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Esenler Erokspor 54%, draw 26%, Keçiörengücü 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Esenler Erokspor €518K, Keçiörengücü €257K.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Esenler Erokspor goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Esenler Erokspor 1738 · Keçiörengücü 1614
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Esenler Erokspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1695
Keçiörengücü · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1604
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Esenler Erokspor
17th in 1. Lig · 9 pts from 10
- 15 OctDManisa F.K. Turkey 1 Lig1722
- 10 OctWİstanbulspor Turkey 1 Lig1711
- 19 SepLFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1756
- 13 SepDBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1718
- 7 SepLKayserispor Turkey 1 Lig1733
Keçiörengücü
7th in 1. Lig · 17 pts from 10
- 14 OctDIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1644
- 9 OctWBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1608
- 19 SepDSivasspor Turkey 1 Lig1617
- 12 SepDVanspor FK Turkey 1 Lig1606
- 5 SepWSarıyer Turkey 1 Lig1576
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 9 /10 | 54.9 | <1% | 12% | 1% | 7th |
| Keçiörengücü | 17 /10 | 52.7 | 0% | 7% | 1% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Esenler Erokspor: balanced profile (how Hikmet Karaman plays) · Keçiörengücü: balanced profile (how Osman Zeki Korkmaz plays)