Serie B · Regular Season - 6
Empoli 2–4 Palermo
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Carlo Castellani, Empoli
EmpoliTeam 1583PalermoTeam 1932- Edoardo Saporiti 50' (pen)
- Bogdan Popov 79'
- Joel Pohjanpalo 57'
- Antonio Palumbo 65'
- Dennis Johnsen 69'
- Tommaso Cassandro 88'
We gave Palermo 56% to win: they did.
- Karim Zedadka 1589 −8* for Simone Romagnoli 1504 −16*45'Empoli:Karim Zedadka 1589 −8* for Simone Romagnoli 1504 −16*
- Lapo Deli 1754 −13* for Filippo Bandinelli 1661 −13*45'Empoli:Lapo Deli 1754 −13* for Filippo Bandinelli 1661 −13*
- Edoardo Saporiti 1652 −13* (pen.)50'Empoli:Edoardo Saporiti 1652 −13* (pen.)
- 57'Joel Pohjanpalo 1993 +16 assist Mattia Bani 1991 +10*Palermo:Joel Pohjanpalo 1993 +16 assist Mattia Bani 1991 +10*
- Jacopo Seghetti 1671 −13*57'Empoli:Jacopo Seghetti 1671 −13*
- 65'Antonio Palumbo 1898 +19* assist Dennis Johnsen 1954 +16*Palermo:Antonio Palumbo 1898 +19* assist Dennis Johnsen 1954 +16*
- 69'Dennis Johnsen 1954 +16* assist Antonio Palumbo 1898 +19*Palermo:Dennis Johnsen 1954 +16* assist Antonio Palumbo 1898 +19*
- Duccio Degli Innocenti 1672 −9* for Edoardo Biondini 1474 −8*71'Empoli:Duccio Degli Innocenti 1672 −9* for Edoardo Biondini 1474 −8*
- Steven Shpendi 1709 −9* for Niccolo Corrado 1670 −12*71'Empoli:Steven Shpendi 1709 −9* for Niccolo Corrado 1670 −12*
- 75'Filippo·Ranocchia 2030 +8*Palermo:Filippo·Ranocchia 2030 +8*
- Bogdan Popov 1511 −8*79'Empoli:Bogdan Popov 1511 −8*
- 80'Hernani 1849 −10* for Jacopo Segre 1902 +1*Palermo:Hernani 1849 −10* for Jacopo Segre 1902 +1*
- 80'Luca Mazzitelli 1880 −9* for Antonio Palumbo 1898 +19*Palermo:Luca Mazzitelli 1880 −9* for Antonio Palumbo 1898 +19*
- 80'Alessandro Gabrielloni 1566 −8* for Joel Pohjanpalo 1993 +16Palermo:Alessandro Gabrielloni 1566 −8* for Joel Pohjanpalo 1993 +16
- 80'Nahuel Estévez 1778 −9* for Filippo·Ranocchia 2030 +8*Palermo:Nahuel Estévez 1778 −9* for Filippo·Ranocchia 2030 +8*
- 85'Patryk Peda 1862 −7* for Dennis Johnsen 1954 +16*Palermo:Patryk Peda 1862 −7* for Dennis Johnsen 1954 +16*
- 88'Tommaso Cassandro 1946 +19* assist Alessandro Gabrielloni 1566 −8*Palermo:Tommaso Cassandro 1946 +19* assist Alessandro Gabrielloni 1566 −8*
- Matteo Egan 1488 −8* for Joseph Ceesay 1660 −13*89'Empoli:Matteo Egan 1488 −8* for Joseph Ceesay 1660 −13*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 19% · 25% · 56%(Empoli · draw · Palermo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 2–4 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Empoli €547K, Palermo €1.7M.
- Serie B: F. Ranocchia was the highest-rated midfielder (2022).
- Style contrast in attacking (Serie B): Empoli ranked #21 of 21, Palermo #3.
- Palermo were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Empoli
13th in Serie B · 6 pts from 5
- 20 SepLModena Italy Serie B1651
- 11 SepLArezzo Italy Serie B1668
- 5 SepWCarrarese Italy Serie B1652
- 30 AugLMantova Italy Serie B1661
- 22 AugWCremonese Italy Serie B1617
Palermo
1st in Serie B · 13 pts from 5
- 19 SepWPadova Italy Serie B1929
- 13 SepDAvellino Italy Serie B1889
- 7 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1947
- 3 SepWMantova Italy Coppa Italia1803
- 30 AugWArezzo Italy Serie B1938
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 6 /5 | 48.1 | <1% | 4% | 12% | 11th |
| Palermo | 13 /5 | 75.5 | 76% | 97% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Empoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1683
Palermo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1938
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Empoli: direct (how Guido Pagliuca plays) · Palermo: balanced profile (how Filippo Inzaghi plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.