Liga Pro · Placement Group - 5
Emelec vs Leones del Norte
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
Emelec host Leones del Norte on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Emelec 52%, draw 26%, Leones del Norte 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Emelec €307K, Leones del Norte €227K.
- Leones del Norte's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Emelec goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Emelec 1619 · Leones del Norte 1491
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Emelec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1653
Leones del Norte · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1533
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Emelec
10th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30
- 18 OctWLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1592
- 10 OctLGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1586
- 20 SepLLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1586
- 13 SepLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1636
- 8 SepWManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1599
Leones del Norte
8th in Liga Pro · 39 pts from 30
- 18 OctLEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1448
- 9 OctLLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1483
- 19 SepDGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1478
- 13 SepLTecnico Universitario Ecuador Liga Pro1510
- 8 SepDMushuc Runa SC Ecuador Liga Pro1546
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 42 /33 | 46.9 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 10th |
| Leones del Norte | 40 /33 | 43.7 | 0% | 0% | 37% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Emelec: balanced profile (how Ezequiel Luis Medrán plays) · Leones del Norte: balanced profile (how Matías Jesús Córdoba plays)