Segunda División · Regular Season - 12
Eibar vs Almeria
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar
Eibar host Almeria on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Eibar 43%, draw 28%, Almeria 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Eibar €1.1M, Almeria €1.5M.
- Home advantage makes Eibar the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Almeria's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
- Almeria have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Eibar goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Eibar 1862 · Almeria 1883
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Eibar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1926
Almeria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1886
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Eibar
3rd in Segunda División · 22 pts from 10
- 17 OctDMallorca Spain Segunda Division1890
- 12 OctLOviedo Spain Segunda Division1897
- 3 OctWAlbacete Spain Segunda Division1885
- 27 SepWLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1870
- 19 SepWEldense Spain Segunda Division1843
Almeria
1st in Segunda División · 24 pts from 10
- 17 OctWReal Sociedad II Spain Segunda Division1875
- 11 OctWLeganes Spain Segunda Division1849
- 3 OctWBurgos Spain Segunda Division1848
- 27 SepWMallorca Spain Segunda Division1808
- 20 SepWCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1821
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 22 /10 | 72.9 | 14% | 55% | 0% | 2nd |
| Almeria | 24 /10 | 75.8 | 24% | 72% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Eibar: balanced profile (how Jokin Arambarri Arrizabalaga plays) · Almeria: creative · shot-heavy (how Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco plays)