Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 10
Dunkerque vs Metz
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Dunkerque host Metz on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dunkerque 38%, draw 29%, Metz 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dunkerque €539K, Metz €837K.
- Home advantage makes Dunkerque the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dunkerque goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Dunkerque 1629 · Metz 1666
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dunkerque · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1681
Metz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1728
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dunkerque
10th in Ligue 2 · 11 pts from 9
- 17 OctWNantes France Ligue 21570
- 9 OctLAnnecy France Ligue 21579
- 18 SepLPAU France Ligue 21585
- 12 SepWSaint Etienne France Ligue 21519
- 4 SepDClermont Foot France Ligue 21570
Metz
7th in Ligue 2 · 13 pts from 9
- 17 OctWSochaux France Ligue 21648
- 12 OctLDijon France Ligue 21676
- 19 SepDSaint Etienne France Ligue 21663
- 14 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21659
- 5 SepWRodez France Ligue 21637
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 11 /9 | 45.6 | <1% | 8% | 5% | 9th |
| Metz | 13 /9 | 48.0 | <1% | 15% | 2% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dunkerque: possession-based (how Albert Sánchez Saura plays) · Metz: balanced profile (how Luc Holtz plays)