Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 12
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC · M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
Dordrecht host VVV Venlo on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dordrecht 38%, draw 29%, VVV Venlo 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dordrecht €259K, VVV Venlo €286K.
- Home advantage makes Dordrecht the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Dordrecht's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
- Only 2 of Dordrecht's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Only 2 of VVV Venlo's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dordrecht goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Dordrecht 1572 · VVV Venlo 1613
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dordrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.4 (Average) · Elo 1552
VVV Venlo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1601
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dordrecht
19th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 10
- 9 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1538
- 3 OctDDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1566
- 25 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1515
- 18 SepLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1530
- 11 SepLFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1493
VVV Venlo
3rd in Eerste Divisie · 22 pts from 11
- 16 OctDJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1565
- 9 OctWJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1535
- 4 OctWRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1530
- 26 SepLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1575
- 18 SepWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1529
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 8 /10 | 43.9 | 0% | 1% | 31% | 18th |
| VVV Venlo | 22 /11 | 59.1 | 4% | 32% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dordrecht: balanced profile (how Paul Nuijten plays) · VVV Venlo: balanced profile (how Marinus Dijkhuizen plays)