Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 14
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
Dordrecht host NAC Breda on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dordrecht 33%, draw 29%, NAC Breda 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dordrecht €239K, NAC Breda €656K.
- Dordrecht's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
- Only 2 of Dordrecht's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dordrecht goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Dordrecht 1570 · NAC Breda 1671
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dordrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.4 (Average) · Elo 1552
NAC Breda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1725
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dordrecht
18th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 11
- 9 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1538
- 3 OctDDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1566
- 25 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1515
- 18 SepLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1530
- 11 SepLFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1493
NAC Breda
5th in Eerste Divisie · 20 pts from 11
- 16 OctWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1718
- 9 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1677
- 3 OctDVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1711
- 26 SepWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1690
- 20 SepWDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1668
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 11 /11 | 45.3 | <1% | 1% | 24% | 16th |
| NAC Breda | 20 /11 | 59.8 | 4% | 37% | <1% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dordrecht: balanced profile (how Paul Nuijten plays) · NAC Breda: balanced profile (how Rick Kruys plays)