Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 15
Dordrecht vs Heracles
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
Dordrecht host Heracles on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dordrecht 31%, draw 29%, Heracles 41%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dordrecht €246K, Heracles €480K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Eerste Divisie): Dordrecht rank #2 of 20, Heracles #19.
- Only 2 of Dordrecht's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dordrecht goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 1–08%
- 2–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Dordrecht 1553 · Heracles 1690
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dordrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1697
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1702
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dordrecht
18th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 12
- 28 OctLSC Genemuiden Netherlands KNVB Beker1509
- 24 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1534
- 9 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1538
- 3 OctDDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1566
- 25 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1515
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 29 pts from 12
- 29 OctLDe Treffers Netherlands KNVB Beker1550
- 23 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1744
- 18 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1626
- 9 OctWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1664
- 2 OctDHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1681
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 11 /12 | 42.5 | 0% | <1% | 35% | 18th |
| Heracles | 29 /12 | 68.6 | 32% | 81% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dordrecht: balanced profile (how Paul Nuijten plays) · Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays)