Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
Dordrecht 0–3 Emmen
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · GN Bouw Stadion, Dordrecht
DordrechtTeam 1461EmmenTeam 1610We gave Emmen 43% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 31% · 26% · 43%(Dordrecht · draw · Emmen)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–3 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Dordrecht €247K, Emmen €331K.
- Home advantage made Dordrecht the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dordrecht
18th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 9
- 3 OctDDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1566
- 25 SepWAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1515
- 18 SepLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1530
- 11 SepLFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1493
- 5 SepLJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1455
Emmen
4th in Eerste Divisie · 16 pts from 9
- 3 OctDWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1669
- 26 SepWFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1631
- 18 SepLFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1686
- 11 SepLDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1667
- 4 SepWFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1633
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 8 /9 | 46.4 | <1% | 2% | 24% | 15th |
| Emmen | 16 /9 | 58.7 | 6% | 36% | 1% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dordrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1552
Emmen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1637
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dordrecht: balanced profile (how Paul Nuijten plays) · Emmen: balanced profile (how Menno van Dam plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.