League One · Regular Season - 10
Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster
DoncasterTeam 1728Burton AlbionTeam 1741- Leon Ayinde 45+2'
We gave Doncaster 41% to win: they did.
- T. Nixon – for Jordan Thomas –12'Doncaster:T. Nixon – for Jordan Thomas –
- 39'Matthew Dennis –Burton Albion:Matthew Dennis –
- Owen Bailey –41'Doncaster:Owen Bailey –
- 45'Toby Sibbick – for Will Collar –Burton Albion:Toby Sibbick – for Will Collar –
- Leon Ayinde – assist Alfie May –45+2'Doncaster:Leon Ayinde – assist Alfie May –
- Robbie Gotts –70'Doncaster:Robbie Gotts –
- 71'Gbemi Arubi – for Matthew Dennis –Burton Albion:Gbemi Arubi – for Matthew Dennis –
- 71'Kain Adom for Charlie Webster –Burton Albion:Kain Adom for Charlie Webster –
- Isaac Hutchinson – for Brandon Hanlan –74'Doncaster:Isaac Hutchinson – for Brandon Hanlan –
- Hakeeb Adelakun – for Leon Ayinde –80'Doncaster:Hakeeb Adelakun – for Leon Ayinde –
- 80'H. Araujo – for Jack Armer –Burton Albion:H. Araujo – for Jack Armer –
- 84'H. Araujo –Burton Albion:H. Araujo –
- Hakeeb Adelakun –90'Doncaster:Hakeeb Adelakun –
Before kick-off (provisional): 41% · 29% · 30%(Doncaster · draw · Burton Albion)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Doncaster €479K, Burton Albion €522K.
- Home advantage made Doncaster the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (League One): Doncaster ranked #1 of 24, Burton Albion #21.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Doncaster
21st in League One · 6 pts from 7
- 6 OctWLiverpool U21 England EFL Trophy1714
- 19 SepWPeterborough England League One1706
- 12 SepLAFC Wimbledon England League One1713
- 8 SepLHuddersfield England EFL Trophy1628
- 5 SepLPlymouth England League One1736
Burton Albion
8th in League One · 12 pts from 9
- 6 OctDGrimsby England EFL Trophy1445
- 3 OctLHuddersfield England League One1838
- 26 SepWPlymouth England League One1806
- 22 SepDNottingham Forest U21 England EFL Trophy1578
- 19 SepDMansfield Town England League One1809
Season outlook
From the League One simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 6 /7 | 54.0 | 0% | 1% | 25% | 23rd |
| Burton Albion | 12 /9 | 58.5 | <1% | 4% | 11% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Doncaster · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1739
Burton Albion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1809
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Doncaster: balanced profile (how Grant Samuel McCann plays) · Burton Albion: direct (how Gary David Bowyer plays)