HNL · Regular Season - 14
Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb host Istra 1961 on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dinamo Zagreb 76%, draw 15%, Istra 1961 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dinamo Zagreb €3.9M, Istra 1961 €377K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of HNL matchday 14: 424 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the HNL average of 23% this round.
- HNL: D. Kotarski is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2106).
- Style contrast in discipline (HNL): Dinamo Zagreb rank #2 of 11, Istra 1961 #11.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dinamo Zagreb goals first.
- 2–012%
- 3–010%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Dinamo Zagreb 2030 · Istra 1961 1606
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dinamo Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2059
Istra 1961 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1732
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dinamo Zagreb
2nd in HNL · 25 pts from 12
- 8 NovWNK Varazdin HNL2019
- 5 NovWSunderland UEFA Europa League1943
- 31 OctLRudes HNL2041
- 27 OctWHNK Rijeka HNL2026
- 22 OctLNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League2058
Istra 1961
4th in HNL · 19 pts from 13
- 7 NovWHNK Rijeka HNL1551
- 30 OctWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1509
- 26 OctDHNK Hajduk Split HNL1539
- 17 OctLNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1540
- 10 OctWNK Osijek HNL1559
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 25 /12 | 79.0 | 88% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Istra 1961 | 19 /13 | 47.3 | 0% | 26% | 11% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dinamo Zagreb: creative · possession-based (how Jerko Leko plays) · Istra 1961: balanced profile (how Javier Cabello plays)