Premier League · Regular Season - 25
Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Dinamo Stadium, Minsk
Dinamo MinskTeam 1553ArsenalTeam 1262- karen vardanyan 40', 66'
We gave Dinamo Minsk 65% to win: they did.
- karen vardanyan – assist Artem Sokolovskiy –40'Dinamo Minsk:karen vardanyan – assist Artem Sokolovskiy –
- 45'Khetag Badoev – for Andrei Zaleski –Arsenal:Khetag Badoev – for Andrei Zaleski –
- Vladislav Poloz – for Artem Sokolovskiy –57'Dinamo Minsk:Vladislav Poloz – for Artem Sokolovskiy –
- karen vardanyan –66'Dinamo Minsk:karen vardanyan –
- Gulzhigit Alykulov – for Evgeni Malashevich –73'Dinamo Minsk:Gulzhigit Alykulov – for Evgeni Malashevich –
- Leonard Chatelin·Gweth – for Moustapha Djimet –73'Dinamo Minsk:Leonard Chatelin·Gweth – for Moustapha Djimet –
- 74'Maksim·Matveev – for Vladislav Vasilyev –Arsenal:Maksim·Matveev – for Vladislav Vasilyev –
- 80'Valeri Gorbachik – for Dmitri Antilevski –Arsenal:Valeri Gorbachik – for Dmitri Antilevski –
- 80'Ilya Vasin – for Daniel Volskiy –Arsenal:Ilya Vasin – for Daniel Volskiy –
- Roman Begunov – for Aleksey Vakulich –82'Dinamo Minsk:Roman Begunov – for Aleksey Vakulich –
Live Elo changes aren't available for this competition.
Before kick-off (provisional): 65% · 21% · 14%(Dinamo Minsk · draw · Arsenal)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dinamo Minsk €304K, Arsenal €107K.
- Draw chance was 21%, below the Premier League average of 27% this round.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dinamo Minsk
3rd in Premier League · 49 pts from 23
- 15 OctWSlavia Mozyr Belarus Premier League1553
- 11 OctWFC Dnepr Mogilev Belarus Premier League1487
- 19 SepWBate Borisov Belarus Premier League1532
- 13 SepLDinamo Brest Belarus Premier League1524
- 6 SepDML Vitebsk Belarus Premier League1527
Arsenal
12th in Premier League · 23 pts from 24
- 9 OctLDinamo Brest Belarus Premier League1257
- 18 SepLML Vitebsk Belarus Premier League1251
- 12 SepDBaranovichi Belarus Premier League1285
- 7 SepDFC Isloch Minsk R. Belarus Premier League1256
- 30 AugLTorpedo Zhodino Belarus Premier League1273
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Minsk | 49 /23 | 59.5 | 15% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Arsenal | 23 /24 | 29.0 | 0% | 0% | 27% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dinamo Minsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Poor) · Elo 1566
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –